The 2012 Presidential Election took place over a year ago; yet, we can still feel the effects of that Tuesday in November. President Barack Obama won re-election, the Senate gained a couple more Democrats, and the House continued to remain strongly Republican. Therefore, nothing really changed. As we look deeper into the election, however, the details display a great deal of change. The demographics of this immigrant nation continue to shift, ballot initiatives across the States show evolving views on social issues, and the reaction to a changing nation will affect the future. In order to explain the complexities of the 2012 election, we need to first break down the election results.
In recent years, polling data has become very important and popular in elections. President Obama won a close election, despite winning re-election with 332 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 206. President Obama only won 51% of the popular vote, (around 62 million votes), to Mitt Romney’s 48% (around 59 million).[1] Breaking down the data reveals the reasons why the election turned out the way it did. The gender analysis of the election shows that President Obama won nearly 55% of the female vote, while only proved successful to about 45% of the male vote. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, managed the reverse, with about 52% of the male vote and around 44% of the female vote. Among age groups, President Obama proved best with the younger population, receiving nearly 60% of the vote of people aged eighteen to twenty-nine. In comparison, Governor Romney did best with the older population, receiving nearly 56% of the vote of people over sixty-five. Reading the data by race and ethnicity also explains the outcome of the election. The only group that largely voted for Mitt Romney were whites, with nearly 59% of the vote. Every other ethnic group mainly voted for President Obama, with him winning 70% of the Hispanic vote, 73% of the Asian vote, and nearly 93% of the African-American vote. Voting behavior broke down very heavily on party lines; 92% of Democrats voted to re-elect the President, while 93% of Republicans voted for Mitt Romney. The former Governor actually did better with Independents, winning the battle with 50% to 45%.[2] It is simple to show the data, but much harder to analyze it to explain why the election turned out the way it did.
America is in a transition in its history; a new wave of immigration and a changing culture in the youth has started to seriously influence elections. In the 2012 election, one in ten voters were Hispanic, the youth vote increased, and the African-American turnout rate may have exceeded that of whites for the first time.[3] The policies of the two major parties will have to reflect these changes. The party that is most successful in reacting to the demographic changes will win more elections in the years to come, unless people actually start voting for a third-party. Policies regarding immigration reform, the decision of the recent gutting of the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court, and social issues, such as same-sex marriage, will affect the outcome of many elections in the future. Policies are important, not the way a politician happens to frame a certain policy when they make a speech. Republicans are going to have to learn this, since they continue to resist immigration reform, enact policies that prevent certain groups to vote, and resist cultural changes in American society. Poll numbers and demographics are not the only things that displayed this fact; the ballot initiatives on Election Day 2012 showed the direction people want this country to go.
States had a host of ballot initiatives around the country for people to vote for in November 2012. Some of these show where the people would like the country to move forward, while others show how people would like the country to move backwards. The results of these ballot initiatives depended greatly on the state and whom that state tends to vote for. In the Republican leaning states, such as Alabama, Montana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri, the people had Republican designed ballot initiatives to vote on. Alabama, Montana, and Missouri voted to reject President Obama’s health care law; Montana also voted to deny state services to undocumented immigrants; Oklahoma voted to ban Affirmative Action; Arkansas voted not to allow the use of medical marijuana; Montana also voted to mandate that parents have to know if their daughter has an abortion if she is under the age of sixteen.[4] For a party with a platform of little government, those state governments sure intervened in people’s lives. While those ballot initiatives were against issues, other states sought to expand equality and liberty.
California had a very interesting ballot initiative, which put to the voters to raise the sales tax a quarter of one cent and to raise the income tax on those making more than 250,000 dollars in order to pay for education; it passed. The states of Maine, Maryland, and Washington voted to legalize same-sex marriage, while Minnesota voted not to ban same-sex marriage. Colorado and Washington voted to legalize marijuana, while Massachusetts voted to legalize medical marijuana.[5] One section of this country wants to move forward and allow people to have more rights, while the other is desperately trying to stop the flow of history. Republicans will find that denying people the right to vote, marry, and enter this country will affect them when people go to vote. In the 2012 election, the “electorate was the most diverse ever,” which makes some of the problems of the U.S. elections even more immediate.[6]
Regardless of what the Supreme Court believes, discrimination and racism are very prevalent in today’s society. The Voting Rights Act has a provision directed at the states that have had a history of discriminatory voting laws for this very reason. When states such as Texas and the other former Confederate States enact laws about voting, the laws go straight to the courts. Preceding the 2012 election, many states tried to pass controversial Voter I.D. laws. A Federal court in Washington blocked the law in Texas, stating, “That law will almost certainly have retrogressive effect: it imposes strict, unforgiving burdens on the poor, and racial minorities in Texas are disproportionately likely to live in poverty.”[7] The concept of having a photo I.D. to vote is not the problem if it is bipartisan and happens over time, but states like Texas rammed these measures through right before the November election in order make an impact. The House majority leader of the Pennsylvania legislature, Mike Turzai, said that the “Voter ID” law, “is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania.”[8] His statement gives the indication of why so many Republican states decided all of a sudden to enact Voter I.D. laws. They design the laws to restrict certain people from voting, mainly poor and minorities, who usually vote Democrat. In a survey done at the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of law, they found that seven percent of the people surveyed do not have ready access to citizenship documents, which amounts to about thirteen million people. The people most affected consist of the elderly, the poor, minorities, and college students.[9] With the increasing minority vote trending towards Democrats, Republicans are trying to limit the right to vote, rather than changing their policies to include more diversity. Even if these laws did not directly affect the outcome of the election, they still are a scary reminder of America’s history of racism.
The reaction of many to President Obama’s re-election showed the realities of racism and the misinformation broadcast by some of the news media. I try to write my blog posts with tons of information and credible sources, but this paragraph will have to be the exception to that rule. On election night, I was on Facebook, (which does not count as a reliable source), because I wanted to report the results and give my two cents. I found a range of reactions to the results from the excited, to the normal, and to the crazy. Some of the crazy consisted of people very concerned about their future just because of one election, while others complained about Black Panther conspiracy theories and President Obama. Fortunately, I have mostly normal friends, but some people out there really frighten me with their reactions. Following Election Day, people in twenty states filed petitions to secede from the country.[10] I thought we figured that this was not a good idea 150 years ago. Of course, then there are people like Ted Nugent who tweeted, “Pimps whores & welfare brats & their soulless supporters hav a president to destroy America.”[11] No one with a brain should listen to racists like Nugent, who now have the internet to spread their venomous tirades. Even students in college, who are supposed to be getting an education and learning the history of the Civil Rights Movement, caused a riot at Ole Miss following the election results.[12] Some people in this country still have not grasped the notion that an African-American is the President of the United States.
In conclusion, the 2012 election highlighted a changing nation and the problems that exist when people do not accept the change. The raw poll data shows how President Barack Obama won his re-election. The rising numbers of Hispanics, African-Americans, and young people voting made it impossible for Mitt Romney to win. The gender gap is also very real as more women realize the policies of the Republican Party. The only way for this country to improve is for the two major parties to change and adapt their policies. They care more about winning elections and making money than the impact their policies have on everyday people. Both parties continue to ignore concerns about gun violence, incarceration rates, the income gap, and education. All of these concerns affect minorities more so than they affect other people. Voters may have, for one election, voted for the Democratic Party; however, “The United States routinely posts the lowest voter turnout rate of any true democracy in the world.”[13] An active populace in the democratic process is the only way to move forward and pave the way for equality and maintaining voter’s rights.
[1] 2012 Election Central, Politico, http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/, last updated 11/29/2012.
[2] Behind the Results, USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/interactives/news/politics/how-the-race-was-won.
[3] Nonprofit vote, America Goes to the Polls 2012: A Report on Voter turnout in the 2012 election, Prepared by George Pillsbury and Julian Johannesen, 5.
[4] 2012 Key Ballot Measures, Politico, http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Measures/2012/, last updated 11/29/2012.
[7] Vogue, Ariane de, Federal Court Blocks Controversial Texas Voter ID Law, ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/federal-court-blocks-controversial-texas-voter-id-law/, August 30, 2012.
[8] Cernetich, Kelly, Turzai: Voter ID Law Means Romney Can Win PA, Politics PA, http://www.politicspa.com/turzai-voter-id-law-means-romney-can-win-pa/37153/, June 25, 2012.
[9] Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of law, Citizens Without Proof: A Survey of American’s Possession of Documentary Proof of Citizenship and Photo Identification, Nov. 2006.
[10] Nearly Half of the US Threatens to Secede, RT, http://rt.com/usa/us-secede-petition-government-540/, November 12, 2012.
[11] Sieczkowski, Cavan, Ted Nugent on Obama Election: ‘Pimps, Whores, &Welfare Brats’ Voted For ‘Spiritual Suicide,’ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/ted-nugent-on-obama-election-twitter-rant-economic-spiritual-suicide_n_2094490.html, November 8, 2012.
[12] Ole Miss Racist Riots After Obama Re-Elected, David Pakman Show, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nKkzQgwAbM, November 9, 2012.